“MMA vs. Boxing”
“MMA vs. Boxing”
Given the buzz that permeates the internet and beyond, it’s hard to believe that the main event at the UFC on Saturday, August 28th is a championship battle between the two best lightweights in the organization, champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar versus BJ “The Prodigy” Penn. Obscuring that rematch (Edgar scored a close unanimous decision in April to rest the title away from Penn) is the much ballyhooed “MMA vs. Boxing” fight between James “Lights Out” Toney and the UFC’s most decorated, albeit aging, hero, Randy “The Natural” Couture.
There are a lot of differences in this co-main event, both personally and athletically:
-James Toney (boxing record: 72-6-3, 44 KOs, 2 no contests) has never wrestled, done Brazilian jiu-jitsu or kicked (or been kicked) in his professional career, which began a short 22 years ago. He HAS however been a world champion is his chosen sport in three different weight divisions: middleweight, super middleweight, and cruiserweight. He has also tested positive for steroids twice, once after out-pointing John Ruiz to win the WBA (World Boxing Association) heavyweight belt. With the positive drug test after the Ruiz fight, the victory was overturned, denying Toney the title in his 4th weight division, at heavyweight. Toney has always been known for his brash and confrontational style outside the ring as well. There is no question in my mind that this latter quality is exactly why he is even in this fight with Couture in the first place (combined with the indelible fact that he happens to be an all-time great in boxing). It does make for compelling television (A.K.A. “Freak Show”), especially for those who don’t watch or care about MMA, like the countless hardcore boxing fans who just might order this pay per view to watch Toney beat up ‘some wrestler’.
-Randy Couture (MMA record: 18-10) has never boxed professionally. But he has won 6 titles in the UFC: 3-time heavyweight champion, 2-time light-heavyweight champion and one-time heavyweight tournament champion. Also of note – within the UFC, Couture has defeated several dangerous standup, striking style fighters in Vitor Belfort (twice), Pedro Rizzo (twice) and Maurice Smith (once). Couture has always been humble and respectful leading up to all his fights, which makes for the perfect foil against Toney’s non-stop bombast.
The history of the Couture/Toney fight (loosely) goes a little something like dis:
As UFC president Dana White puts it, “James Toney picked a fight. James Toney chased me around the country, calling me names, calling me a sissy and a pussy and all this other stuff, and that we’re afraid of boxing”. After initially attending UFC 107, James Toney was again present at UFC 108 in January 2010, finally securing a behind closed doors meeting with White. Within two months, Toney had a deal to fight in the UFC. In the truest ‘careful what you wish for’ scenario, Toney faces off with Couture, who although technically older, presents a stylistic nightmare for ANY standup fighter’s MMA baptism. Couture went on record with, “As long as I’ve been involved in this sport, for the last 13 years, we’ve been compared to boxing. And I’ve heard plenty of boxers run their heads about how terrible we are in striking and how they’d knock us all out. And James is the first one to step up and sign on the dotted line. And I’m like, I’m in, I’ll sign up for that. Let’s go. I think there’s some serious holes in his game and my job is to point those out.”
So…lets break this down: 4 months of MMA training for Toney versus 14 years experience for Couture, Toney has “youth” on his side at 42, where Couture (at 47) inches towards fifty. And that’s about it.
Here’s how the “fight” will unfold: 1) Randy will kick James in the leg until the boxer starts hobbling, 2) Randy will take the now limping Toney down, 3) Randy will punch and elbow James from top position, MANY times until 4) James will turn his back and fall victim to a rear naked choke…all in the first round. This is an easy fight for Couture and, as blindly tempting (to needy types) as it may seem to have symbolism, it will prove nothing.
Frankie Edgar (champion) vs. BJ Penn (challenger)
UFC Lightweight Championship
And now…the main event… I try to be objective when I work. Before the first Edgar/Penn fight I picked BJ, with the caveat that Frankie’s shot at wining was in his ability to hustle. And lo and behold Edgar did in fact accelerate his way to a close decision, upset win over The Prodigy. As a fan of the sport, I couldn’t help but rally in joy at this respectful kid from New Jersey, who was battling against being a 7-1 underdog in besting the best fighter in the world. It was memorable…but I don’t see history repeating itself in the rematch.
Penn gets bored when he doesn’t feel challenged. We’ve seen it throughout his career. When you’re THAT good by nature, it’s hard to get the ever helpful fear in your belly that translates into the burning desire to really push yourself in training. But when you lose, it does provide a wakeup call…to those who will listen. BJ has always marched to a different drummer and has had some great rivalries thus far in his career. We’ve seen barbs thrown with Sean Sherk, Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian and Georges St. Pierre. But that psychological element is once again non-existent in the lead up to his quest to regain the title. Edgar has not engaged Penn verbally, has abstained from the hype game. It’s as if the real fight within the Hawaiian is now within himself.
Like Penn, but in significantly different ways, Edgar has gifts, serious God given talent. Considered a smallish lightweight (I personally feel he’d be best suited at featherweight, but understand why he hasn’t made the drop – I realize that such a move would doom him to the current obscurity and fractional paychecks of fighting outside the well publicized universe of the UFC), Edgar is truly an athletic demon. I have always said that in sports, especially fighting, that speed is king. And Frankie Edgar has been the best (current) example I can think of to exemplify that train of thought. But quickness isn’t the only thing he possesses. With Frankie Edgar, that voluntary twitch muscle timing is hermetically combined with near technical perfection and timing in both wrestling AND kickboxing. To put it another way, he’s a handful, a real pest. If he can touch you but you can’t reciprocate, all the “he’s running away” and “stand still and fight like a man” taunts become hollow unintentional efforts at damage control as the fight slips out of your grasp, with the undertones of, “I can’t beat you at your game, please come play me at mine”. “U Can’t Touch This” (1990) by recent MMA convert MC Hammer, would be a spot on walk out song for Mr. Edgar. It kind of says it all.
So now we have the rematch, the hummingbird versus the eagle. I expect this tango to be far better than the first contest, which garnered a lukewarm response. Penn is motivated and Edgar appears as grounded and focused as always. Both are prepared. This is a dramatic situation. BJ Penn has the most to lose. If he comes up short, his legacy will be severely damaged. If Edgar loses, it will be easier to take in stride (he’s only lost once before, a decision to Gray Maynard). The stakes are incredibly high, higher even, say, than Penn’s second meeting with GSP. I pick BJ Penn to win. I feel that when he is healthy and has the incentive, he the best in the world. And if Penn does regain the belt, the stage will be set for a trilogy that is truly deserving of our enthusiasm because, among other things, it will be devoid of being manufactured.
Gray Maynard vs. Kenny Florian
This is a great and necessary fight that will surely create the next contender for the winner of Edgar/Penn. I feel Maynard is the stronger and more dangerous of the two and pick him press the action and win by unanimous decision.
Silva vs. Sonnen
Leading up to this Saturday’s Ultimate Fighting Championship middleweight (185 pounds) title fight between champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva and challenger Chael Sonnen, it’s obvious that the heat for this particular event has fallen into a kind of a one-way street pattern, banter wise. Sonnen has done everything in his power to rile Silva up, taunt him, get under his skin, to make an interesting buildup, while Silva has reacted by being more abbreviated than usual.
To me, win or lose, Chael Sonnen has completely rewritten and stretched the limits and parameters of creative “smack talk”, including jousting socially and satirically slanted gems as,
“What worries me is that when I destroy Anderson, and I have to do even MORE interviews with more journalists, I [might] become a boring, self-referential blowhard like Bono or some other smirking ‘celebrity’ preaching about global warming or the oppression of Tibet or save the Narwhals or whatever.“
…or…
“The grim, stark reality of losing a bloodbath will re-baptize him, make him a better man, truer to himself and his skills than the silly, ass-shaking fool he’s morphed into, because his weak personality created that ass-shaking fool to satisfy everyone but himself. Years from now, when he and I are both retired, he will thank me. In perfect English.”
…or (after video footage surface online of Silva training with action star Steven Seagal)…
“Seriously, though…STEVEN SEAGAL?!!! JESUS. Well, I’ve got my OWN celebrity action star to work with…the great MEL GIBSON! On Mondays we deny the Holocaust. On Tuesdays we drink, then we deny the Holocaust. Wednesdays we call our respective girlfriends and bellow insane, drunken threats into the phone. Thursdays we do charity work, visit children’s hospitals, etc. Fridays off (except for social drinking and Holocaust-denying cocktail chatter). Saturday it’s “racy-racy” time through the Hollywood hills in our matching Bugatti Veyrons. And Sunday is church (of course). Top THAT celebrity training regimen, Anderson!”
I told my Showtime broadcast partner Mauro Ranallo, after he read me the above quotes, which were from an interview conducted by Paul Lazenby, that Chael Sonnen should write for Jay Leno or David Letterman. Or better yet maybe Tosh.O…or even Glen Beck. But probably not Bill Maher or Stephen Colbert…
But honestly, as great as Sonnen has been in stepping up in the pre-fight interviews, I can’t envision anything in the actual fight other than an instant replay of what we’ve seen in Silva’s last two fights, where he will dance circles around and befuddle another ground based athlete with his cinema inspired speed and dexterity. As good a fighter as Sonnen is, and this will be the best Sonnen possible, I can’t see where or how he can win this fight. If he charges forward and gets aggressive, he will be welcomed with a knee or a machine gun burst of laser accurate punches. His chances go up considerably if he can TAKE the damage, get into round three or beyond and STILL press the Brazilian. Then he will have a shot. But that is discounting a little thing called…blood. Cuts happen and Sonnen has plenty enough scar tissue around that rugged mug of his for Silva’s exacto-strikes to re-introduce as open wounds. And so it goes…I pick Silva in this one.
Werdum/Emelianenko After Thoughts
I received a message on Facebook on June 24th from my pal Derek Wizzle (http://dwizzlesworld.blogspot.com/), asking who I picked in the upcoming Strikeforce: Fabricio Werdum/Fedor Emelianenko bout. I told him, “I give Werdum a solid chance in this fight and won’t be surprised if he notches a decision after struggling early. Fabricio is a much better fighter than (Fedor’s last opponent, Brett) Rogers. But it’s hard to pick against Fedor.” He agreed.
At the party I was attending to watch the fight, I was having a discussion before the live broadcast started with a well known actor/fighter friend, who, like many, seemed to be caught up in Fedor-mania. I still had to struggle mentally to rationalize a pick of Werdum because of Emelianenko’s incredible stats and legacy. I was officially on the fence. But I did ask my friend a simple enough question: who was the best fighter Fedor had beaten in the last 5 years? He paused, couldn’t think of an answer but kept saying “We’ll see, we’ll see…” And we did…
I WAS surprised at how quickly Werdum prevailed however. I figured he’d have to weather that early Fedor hail storm and strategically begin to mount his attack half way through round two. But he shocked everyone, especially Fedor, with a very active and aggressive BJJ guard game.
It would be easy for an excited young fan to say Werdum’s victory was akin to Mike Tyson losing to Buster Douglas. My only problem with that hasty analysis is that unlike Douglas, who was a 35-1 underdog walking into the Tyson fight, Werdum is a solid heavyweight contender who HAS beaten a bunch of REALLY tough dudes like: current Strikeforce heavyweight king Alistair Overeem (submission), Brandon Vera (TKO), Gabriel Gonzaga (TKO), Antonio Silva (unanimous decision) and Fedor’s BIG little brother Aleksander (submission).
To me, Werdum should be fighting Alistair Overeem for the belt in his next appearance for the Strikeforce. I know there was a lot of talk beforehand that if/when Emelianenko beat Werdum he’d get a shot at Overeem. Why not Werdum?
Looking at the world picture, many still ask how would Emelianenko do against UFC champ Brock Lesnar? I think Lesnar would give him big problems. And Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Junior Dos Santos AND Overeem wouldn’t be walks in the park either. But here we are still talking about Fedor and not Werdum, who defeated the Russian…
I am proud to have been part of the history of one of the sport’s greatest champions, Fedor Emelianenko when I used to call his fights in Japan for American pay per views (Pride). But today I think Fedor will face much tougher challenges than he ever has, because among other things, he isn’t a big heavyweight. But if he can rise above some of these fire breathing dragons, it will be icing on what I already consider a hall of fame career. But as my friend told me earlier, “We’ll see, we’ll see…”
(Personally, I think Emelianenko should drop down to 205 – see my article earlier “The Need For A 235 Pound Weight Division In MMA” on October 21, 2009).
Strikeforce: Special Edition – Los Angeles
Strikeforce: Special Edition
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Nokia Theater, Los Angeles, CA
It’s kind of nice not having to fly to another city to “work”. I mean, I DO love traveling, but the Nokia Theater is like 15 minutes from my home. Good stuff. Of course my Showtime broadcast partners in crime, Mauro Ranallo and Pat Miletich, will have to traverse to LaLa Land. Don’t forget your sunglasses, guys…
“Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral
Catchweight Bout – 195 lbs
Robbie Lawler is a solid, top ten middleweight and Renato Sobral is a talented light-heavyweight who always seems to be dancing on the verge of greatness. Both men are former champions, Lawler in EliteXC and ICON, and Sobral in Strikeforce, who know the outcome of this catchweight fight, will put them in position to fight once again for the belt…in their native weight divisions. So there are expectations and there definitely is pressure.
Stylistically their approaches are polar opposites in that Lawler prefers to get things done with striking and Sobral’s instinct is to go for submissions. I guess I could call them both ‘upper hemisphere’ fighters, because their area of attack is mainly above the shoulders, with Ruthless aiming at the jaw or temple and Babalu zeroing in on the neck. And their weak points show susceptibility to what their opponents brings to the party; Babalu has been TKO’d 4 times and Lawler has lost by submission 4 times.
To get things done, Robbie Lawler must move in quickly, preferably behind the jab, find the Brazilian’s chin with one of those bricks he calls fists, and then get out. If he doesn’t rock Babalu on his initial forays he must remain patient. He can’t get too ambitious once he lands and decide to stand in the pocket for too long because a clinch could occur, and that is something Lawler must avoid like the plague. 1-2 or 1-2-3 and then vamonos. His best plan would be to keep things in the center of the cage and box with broken rhythm movement, with a hair trigger sprawl ready for the inevitable shot.
Contrarily, Sobral should pick away with kicks at the legs, while leaning from side to side to avoid the counter punch. It may seem like a dangerous strategy, but he really doesn’t have too many options, because a fist for fist battle will get him KO’d. And just diving in old school will just deplete his energy, which will…get him KO’d. The kicks will serve as a distraction to eventually set up a surprise power punch that will lead to the clinch, with the plan/hopes that Lawler will panic and expend energy to escape. Babalu is a good enough wrestler that he will most likely take Robbie down at least once if they stay tied up for too long. And the floor is where Sobral will have the best chance of achieving a finish, courtesy of his wide array of chokes.
Babalu will have an edge in size and wrestling, but Robbie is trained by Matt Hughes and will therefore be well prepared. Because each lad has been vulnerable to what the other guy brings, the winner will be the one who can impose his will and keep the fight in his domain, Lawler standing and Sobral on the deck.
Marius “The Whitemare” Zaromskis vs. Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos
Welterweight Bout – 170 lbs.
All indications are that this will be an explosive contest. Dream welterweight tournament champion Zaromskis is fast and a little rough around the pugilistic edges, kind of like his opponent, Evangelista Santos in this case, used to be. Cyborg showed a huge leap up in technique and cage generalship in his split decision loss to Joe Villasenor in June of last year, where the Whitemare went down swinging with Nick Diaz in January 2010.
In an ironic twist of fate I see Cyborg taking on the matador role here and countering Zaromskis. Question is, can Marius stay on the outside win a tit for tat battle? I’m thinking not. The Lithuanian needs to get this into a wild slugfest and unleash his not so secret weapon, the head kick. From what I’ve observed in his progression in Cage Rage, and in his razor close contest with Villasenor, is that Santos can and will outbox Zaromskis if they engage in a technical contest.
As exciting as this has the potential to be, I still see a decision here. I lean towards Cyborg. If that in fact happens it will do wonders for his career. But Zaromskis could very well unleash a whole new level of unorthodox athleticism and impress us yet again. After all, that is his M.O.
Tim Kennedy vs. Trevor Prangley
Middleweight Bout – 185 lbs.
Tim Kennedy is a guy to watch. This Army Ranger has experiences that clearly give him a huge edge in…(ahem)…combat. His 2 previous visits in Strikeforce Challengers have shown versatility and poise, with a relaxed killer instinct that gave him finishes inside the distance. But Trevor Prangley is no walk in the park either. This 2-time All-American wrestler, who hails from the illustrious American Kickboxing Academy (AKA), has finished off some tough customers, like Yuki Kondo and Chael Sonnen.
The striking edge definitely goes to Kennedy. As is the norm lately in the sport, the wrestling department is where fights are won or lost. On paper it looks like Prangley has the edge. But Kennedy is no slouch when it comes to MMA wrestling, which ultimately matter more than for collegiate accomplishments. Kennedy will also be the faster of the two. Therefore I see a troublesome evening for Prangley in a standing battle.
KJ Noons vs. Conor Heun
Catchweight Bout – 160 lbs.
Conor Heun had a serious battle with Jorge Gurgel last year in Strikeforce Challengers, which I considered one of the greatest tussles of 2009. He came up on the short end of the decision but earned accolades for his jiu-jits/wrestler turned brawler grit. Is KJ Noons a different animal? Yes. He’s a professional boxer who stopped Nick Diaz and Yves Edwards in MMA. He has proven that he can find the target, meaning your face, oft times enough to make you have to get new headshots after the bout.
So as tempting as it is to hope for a redo of his toe-to-toe epic with Gurgel, Heun should go to his true strengths and test KJ’s wrestling and especially his submission defense, rather than try to prove a pugilistic point here. KJ will be favored going in but Heun has shown immense growth and heart and will pose problems if he plays his hand right. Either way, I can’t envision anything less than a jaw dropper from these boys in a fight that may deliver a new name to be included in the Gilbert Melendez title conversation.
Journey, The Band
I’m listening to Journey on my iPod right now. The “Departure” album stands out, but you really can’t go wrong with any of the stuff with Steve Perry on vocals. I also love the “Captured” live disc!
I recently saw Journey in a concert they shared with Cheap Trick and Heart. New vocalist Arnel Pineda did an amazing job duplicating the gymnastics of Perry, while bringing his own brand of energy, which gave the group a huge boost to their live presentation! Pineda’s voice on “Wildest Dream” from the “Revelation”, their current record, really sold me! Journey really deliver the goods in concert!
Strikeforce Challengers: Portland
Strikeforce Challengers: Portland, Oregon
Friday, May 21, 2010
Showtime Networks
To me the Strikeforce Challengers series is a hidden treasure. Usually overshadowed by the bigger, more celebrity oriented events; the Strikeforce Challengers franchise consistently delivers exciting fights and develops worthy and capable MMA next-generation talent. Names that come immediately to my mind on that latter point are Luke Rockhold, Tim Kennedy and of course Tyron Woodley. That trio of gentlemen is indeed ready to graduate to bigger, more visible pastures.
The sad thing for me however (even though I am part of the main Strikeforce shows every once in a while on Showtime), is that because I predominately work the Strikeforce Challengers gigs (along with ace broadcaster Mauro Ranallo and legendary fighter/coach Pat Miletich), I might not get to commentate or be a part of the continued history of the athletes who grow wings and fly onto the main Strikeforce shows on Showtime, CBS and beyond. But…c’est la vie… I am happy and proud to be a part of the discovery/revelation process. Always have been. Making a career out of teaching people what bandwagon they should jump onto is a funny, if not ironic, lifestyle.
And I must say, that I am especially looking forward to THIS particular installment of Strikeforce Challengers. I really think it captures the essence of what the series is all about: fresh faces AND veterans, compelling matchmaking, with the potential to translate into some serious ACTION!
Matt “The Law” Lindland (21-7) vs. “King” Kevin Casey (3-1)
I like this match a lot because of the forces of nature that make it competitive – Lindland being 40 and mega-experienced, Casey being young (28), strong and…cocky, yet green. The question begs: Is Casey, who is a brown belt under the great Rickson Gracie, a Jacare (the BJJ world champ who dispatched Lindland in his last fight)? No (at least not yet). But does he have to be? We’re going to find out…in Matt Lindland’s backyard.
Matt Lindland was once considered one of the best 185-pounders in the world. To get his mojo back he must return to the ‘get mean’, garbage disposal wrestling/dirty boxing style he had during his years with the WFA and IFL. We haven’t seen THAT Matt Lindland in a while. Honestly, it would have to be considered an embarrassment if Lindland gets taken down by Casey (yes, Casey needs this on the floor to win, unless we suddenly see the “striking” prowess that he professes). Speaking of blushing, I would be interested in finding out if among his local, lifelong friends, Lindland has a bet that he’ll become a hip-hop fan if he loses?
Who wins? Casey can withstand a loss here more than Lindland can. I side with “The Law”.
Tyron “T-Wood” Woodley (6-0) vs. Nate Coy (8-2)
I mentioned Tyron Woodley earlier for a reason: he deserves as much publicity as any young fighter in the sport. True, he’s not the main event on this upcoming show, but since his entry into Strikeforce Challengers, Woodley has been nothing short of dominant. 6-0, all by submission sends a message. I’ve even gone as far as saying publicly that Woodley would be a bankable challenge against the great Georges St. Pierre in about a year. So yes, I do feel he would be a perfect, home grown contender to face Nick Diaz for the Strikeforce welterweight belt.
Woodley has to know he’s dancing on the verge of stardom, and so do Pat, Mauro and I. The temptation is to look ahead, towards the Diaz’s and the GSPs, mentally leapfrogging over one’s current opponent, who in this case is an extremely rugged Northwestern wrestler named Nathan Coy. Looking past your upcoming fight is a common trap that happens quite frequently in the game, usually with prodigious types like “T-Wood”. Hype can have pluses AND minuses. It takes a really strong mind to contain and overcome this. I believe Woodley has that kind of focus and gifts, and will be victorious against Nate Coy. But he WILL be tested by a foe who is toughest yet.
“Relentless” Roger Bowling (7-0) vs. “Vicious” Bobby Voelker (21-7)
Voelker (21-7) made a huge impression when he got of the deck and finished Erik Apple on Showtime in November of last year. Cojones plus. Roger Bowling is Ohio’s best and brings big time punching power and an undefeated record (7-0). This will be better than Voelker/Apple, if that’s possible! Flip a coin for your pick…
Nate Moore (6-1) vs. Tarec “The Spong” Saffiedine (8-2)
The wrestler (Moore) against the kickboxer (Saffiedine). But that over simplification is almost an insult nowadays, especially on this level. These guys can both do everything. But…honestly…Moore needs to take this one to the ground. Otherwise he’s going to catch a size 11 foot upside the head all night long.
Pat “Bam Bam” Healy (22-15) vs. Bryan Travers (13-1)
Like the Voelker/Bowling and Lindland/Casey fights, this match pits an experienced vet, Healy, against an up and coming potential terminator, Travers. Travers is a wrestler who has honed his striking and Healy is a brawler with decent wrestling and dangerous MMA jiu-jitsu. The first guy who gets tired from all the scrambling and punching, loses.
Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery Picks
Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery Picks
May 15, 2010
Alistair Overeem (champion), 32-11 vs. Brett Rogers (challenger), 10-1
Strikeforce Heavyweight Championship
-Rogers by knock out
Antonio Silva, 13-2 vs. Andrei Arlovski, 15-7
-Silva by knockout
Ronaldo Souza, 11-2 vs. Joe Villasenor, 27-6
-Souza by submission
Roger Gracie, 2-0 vs. Kevin Randleman, 17-14
-Gracie by submission
Rafael Calvalcante, 8-1 vs. Antwain Britt, 11-3
-Britt by TKO
Lyle Beerbohm, 13-0 vs. Vitor Ribeiro, 20-3
-If Beerbohm is healthy he could very well take this; otherwise – Shaolin by submission
Quadros On HDNet’s “Inside MMA” This Friday
“I’m thrilled to be back on ‘Inside MMA‘ with my colleagues Bas Rutten, Kenny Rice and Ron Kruck. The other panelists I was on the show with are Strikeforce champions Jake Shields and Gilbert Melendez.”
Catch this explosive episode of “Inside MMA” on Friday, May 14th at 6PM PST on HDNet.
And..be sure to pay attention to Jake, Gilbert and Stephen during the CLOSING CREDITS…
Machida vs. Rua II
Lyoto Machida (champion) vs. Mauricio Rua (challenger)
UFC Light-heavyweight championship bout
I cannot for the life of me figure out why I have been dragging my feet in writing this. I feel this card has some truly attractive fights for a variety of compelling reasons. Yet here it is Thursday, with the event dropping on Saturday. Hmm… MMA overkill? Dunno…
I was in attendance at the Staples Center in Los Angeles when “The Dragon” (Machida) turned back the challenge of “Shogun” (Rua) in October of last year. But in all honesty, if I would have been scoring the fight that night I would have awarded it to Shogun. That is not a slight in any way to Machida, it’s simply my opinion. Actually I had predicted Machida would win by knock out. My analysis then was based on the bull rush that Rua (and many of the Chute Boxe fighters) usually employed and how that would play directly into the hands of Lyoto’s ‘back-to-the-future’ counter attacking abilities. But instead, Rua was patient and demonstrated why Muay Thai has many times been successful against Karate in the past, in kickboxing anyway.
But this rematch will be a whole different animal. Success against the low kick (also referred to by people outside of Thailand or Holland as the leg kick) can be achieved theoretically in several different ways: taking the attackers kick to your leg while hitting him in the face simultaneously, checking (blocking) the kick with your shin or preferably your knee, kicking the low kicker with a front (teep) kick or side kick to the body while they are in the act of kicking you (this can result in putting them on the canvas when timed correctly) or grabbing the kicking leg and going for a takedown. But realistically I don’t see Machida doing the latter. Instead he will implement the former 3 choices. He will have to. Otherwise Rua will do an “Aldo” (or a “Ruas” depending on your length of term here in the ‘new’ sport) to the proud Karate man’s lead leg.
But this fight isn’t as simple as that singular technique. Before these two respectful Brazilian champions met the first time Machida had justly earned praise as being within the sport’s pound-for-pound elite by whooping three of the division’s best: Rashad Evans (KO), Thiago Silva (KO) and Tito Ortiz (unanimous decision). Rua had earned his shot probably as much because there wasn’t anyone else around…or “available” (see: Quinton Jackson) at the moment, as much as his KO of former king Chuck Liddell. Because Rua had been choked out by Forrest Griffin and then struggled against Mark Coleman, he was considered to have suddenly become erratic following his dominant years while in the Pride organization and was an underdog going into the first match. But certainly not now…
I believe that this fight will play out in another standing battle with both men dishing out and receiving damage, Rua with low kicks and Machida with body kicks. Although neither man is what you would call a “boxer”, both can punch pretty hard. I would have to say that Machida, because of his unique (if you’ve never seen Karate) footwork has the advantage in avoiding being hurt from punches, more so than Rua does. That seemingly insignificant area will make the difference and it will be why Lyoto Machida will retain his title, most likely by decision.
Josh Koscheck (USA) vs. Paul Daley (UK)
I’m pretty excited about this fight. As much as we are all tempted to label this as yet another ‘striker’ (Daley) versus a ‘wrestler’ (Koscheck) match, these lads have assured us that they are in fact multi-faceted (I’m really trying to abstain from using ‘well-rounded’ for the umpteen millionth time). Koscheck has even put forth that he will stand toe-to-toe with the Brit. Perfect, I hear your words… I used to consul fighters to, in pre-fight publicity, say the opposite of what they were really going to do, in an attempt to trick their opponents. But somehow I just don’t think Daley buys that a decorated wrestler (four-time NCAA Division I All-American) like Koscheck will want to do a remake of Hagler/Hearns with him. That would just not be wise.
I had heard all the stories that Daley was training/sparring with world ranked boxers and kickboxers and thought, “That’s cool. But…shouldn’t you be working on your wrestling?” Well in fact he secretly has been. So both guys are playing serious minds games here. These things, combined with everything else, including chatroom trolling and inadvertent Photoshop infatuation, two areas that will surely get teenage fans excited, will help make this into a potential classic.
Gameplan? Three words for Josh Koscheck, “Take Him DOWN!” Daley’s method is going to be a bit more complex. To beat Kos, Paul needs to stay away from the fence, use side-to-side movement and catch him clean with that murderous left hook.
When this fight first announced I picked Josh Koscheck to win with a GSP style performance. But since then…I have changed my mind. I think Daley wins by late knock out. Call it a hunch…
Rumor is that the winner here will be offered the stars and the moon (#1 ranked contender spot, a coaching job on TUF opposite GSP and then a title shot after that). Meanwhile was that Jon Fitch I saw on the side of a milk carton…?
Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione
There’s no doubt that Kevin Ferguson, er, I mean “Kimbo”, has evolved as a mixed martial artist (thanks ATT) and is one of the most well spoken, yet intriguing entities in the game. On the other hand, Matt Mitrione was “the bad guy” on last season’s Ultimate Fighter TV show. But despite the careful work from the editors on the show to make him look like a whiner extraordinaire, Mitrione could actually fight. And, stepping out of “reality” and into the Octagon, he proved that convincingly, in his pro MMA no less, when he dominated and KO’d a massive Marcus Jones on the TUF 10 Finale.
There are a lot of factors to consider here, a few of which are: 1) Kimbo is finally fighting a guy in MMA who has less experience than himself and 2) Mitrione is going to have a huge reach and weight advantage (40 pounds+). Based on what I have seen of Matt Mitrione on TUF and in his single appearance in the UFC he can definitely hit. And Kimbo can be hit. Therefore Kimbo should blast the former NFL lineman with low kicks from hell, and then work in and out with punches.
Somehow I doubt we’ll see a lot of BJJ in this one. As a matter of fact I think that the only way it goes to the ground will be by accident or when one of the guys gets his chin checked. But putting any personality/popularity contest temporarily on hold, I picture Matt Mitrione winning this.
Aldo vs. Faber
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber – Saturday, April 24, 2010
Urijah Faber is absolutely THE most marketable featherweight fighter in the world. But in terms of actual ranking, in my mind anyway, he comes in at number three. And that status will not likely change this Saturday when Faber challenges Jose Aldo, in an attempt to regain the title he once held. But that’s not a knock on “The California Kid” in anyway; he is still an absolute dynamo when he enters his home office, the cage. It’s just that Aldo happens to be from another planet.
To me, this fight is the equivalent of an M-80 versus a stick of dynamite. Before Mike Brown showed up and beat him twice, Faber was the ONLY 145-pounder that people in the states (and possibly the world) talked about. Well, surprise, surprise, that is STILL the case. Whether its because of the promotional mentality of the powers that be or something else, the champion, Brown at the time, remained obscure while the former champ, Faber was everywhere; commercials, magazine covers, half-time interviews at live shows, etc. And after crushing Brown to snatch the belt, Aldo is still on the fringes himself, an extra in Faber’s movie.
Jose Aldo doesn’t seem to mind. His quiet confidence is a weapon in itself. When you come from, and rise above true hard times (starvation) and focus the way this Brazilian prodigy has, well, the results have been staggering. Aldo, 16-1, with 11 KOs, has knocked out every fighter he has faced in WEC, including legendary Shooto champ Alexandre Franca Nogueira and champion Mike Brown. That in itself sends a message that has to make even the toughest of the tough a little nervous.
And without question, Urijah Faber IS one tough hombre. You don’t amass a rap sheet of 23-3, with 12 submissions, including conquests over Dominick Cruz, Raphael Assuncao and Jens Pulver by being anything less than outstanding. But recently he’s hit a rough patch, courtesy of (Mike) Brown, losing 2 of his last 4 outings, one by first round TKO and one by decision. Aldo’s only loss was back in 2005, a submission in round 2 to Luciano Azevedo.
Faber has the speed and wrestling skills to take this and he should uncork those assets early to get into the lead. Smothering Aldo’s striking and putting him on his back is a high priority. As is common practice these days he should engage in striking only to setup the clinch, an area he must impose as frequently as possible. Forget a KO, forget a submission; just grind baby.
Aldo simply has to do what he does best, fight on instinct. He really doesn’t need a gameplan other than to let his feet move when necessary and let his hand go at will. His flow is so automatic at this stage in his career that it’s going to be very hard to stop. An aggressive striker, who has absolutely no fear of being taken down, because he’s a Nova Uniao black belt in jiu-jitsu, is worrisome…to say the least.
Therefore, I pick Aldo to retain his championship by TKO.
